Has OELVN development peaked?

[Dim Sum]

Now "TV has peaked"? I'm sorry, but I feel that's a very shallow mindset. It may well be that you're seeing a pattern of stagnation in TV or any other medium, but to write anything off fully would be a mistake, in my view. You can't account for what progress might be made in the future, what new trends might emerge, what new prodigies in the field might come forwards and so on. Human history is full of individuals who looked at particular achievements and said "This is it; this will never be bettered." and time and again history has proved them wrong.

Peaked doesn't mean it won't unpeak either. To me that is just as shallow. Especially ignoring corporate models which is a major factor of why it has peaked and focusing solely on individual achievement.

History did not prove the Great Depression wrong. Even limiting it to art, history did not save many TV shows.

The Coda did not save Andromeda
The fact that Futurama was considered more intellectual than Family Guy did not allow it to be brought back much sooner before the writer's quality declined.
The fact that Finder was one of the better spin-off shows did not prevent studios from releasing an out of order 1st season.
The fact that many clinged to Lost as an intellectual TV show did not make the ending any less of a hack and an insult to it's viewers.

For every time history can move forward, there's nothing preventing a Nuclear leak, a Hurricane Katrina, a BP oil spill...and nothing preventing people from forgetting until marketed news remind them of it again.

The same applies to a fanbase. If people forgot what made DragonBall and Yu Yu Hakusho good, they just spawn Naruto for the next generation. If devs only see Slam Dunk as a sports anime, you get more crappy sports anime not works of that quality. If devs see dating sims as just VNs, then there would be a lack of Thousand Arms, Princess Maker, Tokimeki Memorial inspired alternatives just mere copycats of their ui, storytelling, gimmick. This doesn't mean the view is not shallow, only it's not the shallowest view as someone who thinks just because there can be a new popular TV show that it can't mean to have peaked. Just as new wars and new peace don't make up for the victims of the old war and the old peace that set up the new war, new TV shows are not a counter proof for why something may or may not have peaked.

[Dim Sum]

That's kind of what I'm getting at. We made that game in a month AFTER the marathon that is Nanoreno. If we can make that small success in something so short and rushed and that had a word limit because it was a school project, can you imagine what Camille and I could do if we really tried to take down something? I can really see not only us, but also others finding very interesting directions to take VNs. I don't believe we have even begun to scratch the surface of what we can do. And sometimes we all have to experiment a bit before we hit our stride. The Elevator got more attention than I thought it would. At the end of the day it was short and rushed and I didn't have anywhere near the time to spend on it as I wanted to. But it did perk interest in a couple places, including an offer to translate it into French. We did get some really discerning comments and really I'm just happy people play it and enjoy it. Even someone saying 'it was too short' is a good sign since it means they were interested enough to want more. All I can really say is just give us all a bit of time and we will show you what VNs can really do (I'm glad you like it by the way!)

Well, I don't mean to deter you further but to borrow another Lemmasoft thread, Hideo Kojima never prevented this: http://lemmasoft.renai.us/forums/viewto ... 13&t=15984

You guys could be the next indie Hideo Kojima but if something has peaked, it's peaked. That said, to emphasize, I did say it was a what if on my part. You believe it hasn't peaked so you shouldn't worry. I just wanted to know.

[TrickWithAKnife]

I can't speak much about quality, as I'm relatively new to the whole OELVN scene, and haven't played as many as most of you.
But regarding popularity, it does seem that the popularity of OELVNs is far from peaking.

Actually, I had an interesting experience today at work. I was talking to one of my students (a Japanese guy, maybe 17 or 18 years old) about his weekend. He said he was playing visual novels. Out of curiosity, I asked him if he'd ever played one in English. He answered that the one he played on the weekend was English: Katawa Shoujo.

That surprised me quite a bit. I did ask him if he would play OELVNs in the future. He said he would, if the language was easier. He said he had to use a dictionary to play Katawa Shoujo, and after 2 hours he threw his dictionary and gave up.

[Obscura]

Actually, TV is actually at the highest quality level it's ever been, due to cable. Television writing is THE place to be as a writer, in any industry.

[Dim Sum]

And for many directors, Hollywood is the place to be but that hasn't buried many international directors has it?

Plus Writer's strike anyone?

Not to mention writing quality is such a small subset of an overall TV show. Budgets, deadlines, finishing a product's complete plot before cancelling it... when pay and job security are the ultimate motivators rather than the finished product, it definitely can't be said that nothing has peaked.

Even if just chucking out high quality products are all that's needed to say something hasn't peaked, what diverse high quality products are out there that are cherished on their merit not on their buzz?

Almost none in modern times to my knowledge.

Games of Throne survives mostly by following the trend of HBO shows that were constantly mentioned. It's not a TV show that you can sit down and say...watch a competing show with the same themes and say you prefer it.

The Walking Dead is the only zombie show that's currently out there unless you count The River.

...and remember these are still ongoing. It wasn't so long ago that Heroes was supposed to be some good long lasting series about Heroes.

Even for pseudo-medical dramas, shows like 3 lbs with Stanley Tucci gets cancelled and gets compared to a House rip-off.

Most of the Western TV shows that are now showing are only great because they don't have to go head to head on the same criteria, just on the same schedule.

It's been a while since there has been a Mad TV vs. SNL or a Twilight Zone vs. Outer Limits.

What's worse is that almost all the great TV writing being talked about? They all involve some mega budget concept that also requires just as much work on the non-writing side. There's really very few mid budget shows that are popular that aren't reality TV.

Then there's the audience. How many audiences were into watching the Walking Dead without realizing it's a comic book and not a semi-realistic depiction of zombie survivors until the end of S2? How many just want to watch Game of Thrones because there's a lack of shows with such quality on TV?

For a medium as long as TV, it going back to reruns and low competition concept runs is a step back to the time where things like the Simpsons could take off for so long and the creators could move on to something like Futurama only after the show has run it's course. Nowadays Western TV feels like a dot com boom with all these new shows popping out and dying. From a casual glance on the outside looking in, it's a good place for a writer who wants to be paid and praised but not for a writer who wants to see their baby live to grow and die as an old man even if they just plan a show that would end for a season.

[Obscura]

Actually, without the writing, the TV show is nothing. Unlike a movie that can bank on its special effects, the story has to be the principle concern of a TV series. That's why the lead of a TV show is NOT the director, but head writer.

[swinkee]

Stagnation doesn't mean stop.

Actually, I think you'll find that that's exactly what stagnation means.

Peaked doesn't mean it won't unpeak either.

You guys could be the next indie Hideo Kojima but if something has peaked, it's peaked.

Either you changed your mind in the 4 minutes between these comments, or there's some impressive cognitive dissonance going on here.

As to the question at hand, I believe it's unanswerable. Without the benefit of hindsight, we can't accurately say whether or not the community has peaked, only speculate, and while I can't speak for anyone else, I put very little trust in speculation.

[TrickWithAKnife]

Stagnation means not moving. At a glance it may seem the same as being stopped, but it's not.
Also it's generally used to describe something that is deteriorating due to lack of movement. This would make it an accurate way to describe an industry that is going downhill due to a lack of change or innovation.

As for peaking, you are right. It's impossible to know what the future holds. But I'm being uncharacteristically optimistic regarding this. If someone told you what you are working on will never be as good as what came before, would you continue?

The audience is expanding, ideas build on each other, and everyone involved in making games/novels gains experience.

We will probably have to wade through a lot more rubbish to find the gems, but the number of gems should increase at a similar rate.

[Dim Sum]

If someone told you what you are working on will never be as good as what came before, would you continue?

Thank you. I think this is the core of what makes certain creators uncomfortable. The factual opinionated realization that "it may".

...however this is why the arena for speculation is not bad. Speculation means it may or it may not. Just list the facts. No journalism here. Just what we each know from each of our memories.

Not everyone can handle the possibility of a truth and not even should take the truth as unchangeable. That's why an "unpeak" can happen.

Even with stagnation, this truth will always be consistent:

The audience is expanding, ideas build on each other, and everyone involved in making games/novels gains experience.

Stagnation in VNs doesn't mean something can't be good anymore forever. It means the possibility of maybe audiences/creators are leaving behind something that may not necessarily be crappy or outdated but pretty good for it's time just lacking the resources and most of the important audience may be coming along with them. A paradigm shift towards a trend of a different form.

As for the wiktionary:

Being stagnant:

stagnant:

Lacking freshness, motion, flow, progress, or change; stale; motionless; still.

Example:

Actually, without the writing, the TV show is nothing.

False: http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20172074,00.html

Unlike a movie that can bank on its special effects, the story has to be the principle concern of a TV series. That's why the lead of a TV show is NOT the director, but head writer.

It used to be more important but now it's not set in stone.

Reality TV rarely needs writers except for Joe Schmo Show and even that didn't stay forever despite having one of the earlier stars in Kristen Wiig show her acting chops and becoming a part of SNL.

Andromeda was an example where the top writer got fired, it declined but still stuck around for a while mostly hoisted by the petard of the sub-writers mixed in with the new ones.

Adventure Time was a writer centric cartoon that mostly got greenlit because someone with experience said it can be extended into a series and only after the presentor's other work Flapjack got cancelled.

...and what are the modern general perception of writer centric shows by the general fans and producers?

Producers need writers but they continue to punish them and try to shove down things like reality TV.

The fanbase then mostly eat it up. Even if you're not a watcher of bunk, few see LazyTown as being created by an Akira Toriyama:

If you did all these:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0396991/boa ... #122401175

1. He was planning LazyTown since 1994.
2. He launched successfully the first books about the show (became a best-sellers in Iceland).
3. He produced and participated (successfully) in the first LazyTown version for Icelandic TV.
4. In 2003 he planned the international TV LazyTown version, considering advices and recommendations from educational professionals and not only his personal view of this matter.
5. He build the most advanced digital TV studio with HD in order to offer the best kids show, no matter the costs. Why? Because he thought the kids deserved it.
6. He took part in the LazyTown casting, showing an exceptional eye to catch talented artists (again, as you mentioned about the actors, the puppeteers and artistic designers).
7. He has written and directed many of LazyTown episodes while he was acting in these same episodes.
8. He supervises all post production of each LazyTown episode, requesting always the best quality and results.
9. LazyTown show (and its crew) has received (and won) many awards and acknowledgements not only from entertainment world but educational also.

He has showed much about himself in the LazyTown episodes (that’s true), but think a little bit on it: he’s doing it well as an actor, as producer, as director and as its creator, keeping always a big level of energy and optimism that children (and grown people) can feel and follow. So, I wouldn’t call “narcissism” all these things neither a waste of time. That’s incorrect and very unfair with him and with his work. I would call them full-time dedication, a big need to offer always simply the best of the best.

...you're still not put up in the same pedestal as someone like Joss Whedon who himself is often painted as one of the few cult heroes by the knowledgeable hardcore TV watchers.

Why? Because most of the TV model are based on addiction and are now shifted extremely further to that side to the point that if there is any rise in quality, it is only due to the desire to get that first hook sunk in deeply into the skin of a fanbase.

Yes, a writer is still necessary but only to entertain and turn the viewer into a mob who will:

1. save the writer if the show gets cancelled by fan protest

2. allowing writers to be corrupted by their own power and fire/kill actors their writing abilities didn't bother to work on thus giving them leverage over their own works

3. make it so that their next show becomes easier to hype and pitch

The principle concern of a TV show is just part of stagnation moving on and still retaining some basic half truths. Kind of like government voting still exists even though now there are only two parties and not all the candidates of those parties get fair treatment and not just in America but even the other major Western scene of UK/Europe. It don't mean Jack.

I don't think differing opinions on TV are this relevant though. Truth of the matter is, the difference between TV and RenPy, is that TV even in the best of light was an industry built on not only the writer knowing how to write good but to write the proper syntax that would convince producers to take the writer seriously.

RenPy is part of a modern digital form of storytelling where syntax is necessary where it is necessary. There's little "you have to follow this font or say the right stuff" to get a VN out of it. What I wrote about TV came from a person asking me of what I thought about TV. It was fun and interesting to debate this issue for a while especially since some of you guys seem to know more about the industry than I but it has become another KS to the thread.

[MaiMai]

Dim Sum, I've been paying attention to this topic as thoroughly as I can, but I will have to ask if you can summarize your opinion in several points on how the OELVN scene has "peaked" and please do so as concisely as you can. Don't use statistics unless you think they're absolutely necessary because it seems like this viewpoint has a lot of different sides to it numbers or not. Quite frankly, the walls of texts with points flying all over the place makes me very confused as to why you disagree with the view about how some of us don't think there's been a peak especially since we went from talking about story content to TV writing.

[Dim Sum]

I can't. I did not have an opinion coming in. I had an observation. I presented why I have observed that to give merit to the question.

That's it.

Then I replied to the replies.

It's also false that I disagree. I was being a devil's advocate. I pointed to the flaws I've spotted. Presented counter evidence that I knew.

When asked for my opinion, I shared it. That's pretty much it.

The summary of the thread is the question: Has OELVN development peaked?

You can't get any longer or shorter than that.

[PyTom]

The problem with this thread is that it poses a question that can only be answered by predicting the future. Maybe there will be no more great EVNs, and maybe a dozen will be released in December. The question of "Did EVN development peak in 2012?" is something that will have an obvious answer in 2014 - and will not be answerable before then. So let's not bother spending another week debating, rather than doing something more productive.

After all, the best way to predict the future is to create it.

If someone wants to stake out the prediction that EVN development peaked in the past - say 2010 or so - that's a debatable position. But I don't want the forum going in circles around a point that can't be supported or rebutted.

I'm not thread-locking yet, but please try to keep this thread productive, or just let it drop.

[theglob]

/rant on

I think its not a matter of if it has peaked or not its more a matter of that if OELVN's finally mature.
When someone puts out their work they have to be ready to take critiques that tear the hard work apart like in any other part of the games industry.

What most people will say well its a hobby an not professional.
Let me say one thing to that: IT DOES NOT MATTER.
Your personal or teams dedication level to a project does not matter for your readers/players, they want to be entertained period.

Another thing in nearly the same vein is that that some people try hard to distinguish what is not to be distinguished.
The label of OELVN is nothing but a label thats like a newbie protection that has long since worn off.

If OELVN want to grow they have to compete with the asian market. Most western players have at least some exposure to the market and thanks to the recent changes especially with steam listing more vns thats your competion.

Again players do not distinguish between fan games hobby games or commercial games for them what matters is if they are entertained or not. In that regard its not always production value that matters Katawa shoujo showed that.

What matters is dedication to the project and thats what a lot of those self called hobby projects lack.
Beeing willing to spend money is not dedication. Pulling trough and release something relase worthy thats dedication.

/rant off