Calculations: 20% of all OELVN projects get completed

[mikey]

... simply from experience, we KNOW that 95%, or even more of announced projects never get completed.

It seems I was monumentally wrong, at least when considering ALL projects (not just the really big ones - the truth is of course that no such OELVN has yet been released)... but if you take all projects, regardless of scope, well... I looked at my page where I collect the info for all reasonably started projects, and looked at the OEL titles already released (more or less all of them are at the RAA), made the percentage and I was really surprised. And I didn't even count a lot of the Flash OEL bishoujo... games, of sorts, this may have increased the percentage to around 30% (since such projects are also in the scope of the projects list).

Anyway, the maths...

Given the fact that there are around 75 games on the RAA and I have tried to collect all reasonably started projects on my page, now it stands at around 285, that means that 360 have been started (285 + 75), divide that by 75 completed (or rather 75 / 360, times 100), that's around 21%

So actually, statistically, there is a very good chance that projects will be complete. Again, this is noting that it's mostly the small games that make this percentage, but nevertheless, it's still IMO a very encouraging statistic.

[yummy]

If you consider all projects in your calculations, you should also calculate your statistics according to the time line. I mean, not all projects are released in a few months. I'm really wondering more and more about the possibility that the more time the games stay in development stages, the more they are likely to be dropped. Is it like that or is it just my imagination ?

But I must admit, this is indeed a great sign considering that VN projects can be easily dropped (not only OEL ones)...

Do your statistics state that there is only a third of the community that is productive?
Or rather, is there really a link between "announced projects [that] never get completed" and completed ones?

[mikey]

It's just the plain numbers speaking, this was no research - you're right, there are many factors: length, participants, production method (parallel, piece-by-piece, episodic, etc...), other commitments (blogs, reviews, etc,...)

Plus, for instance my projects have not been announced (or announced very shortly before release - the only exception was NaNoRenO for me). So really, it's just a Sunday statistic, but I found it to be an encouraging one.

Or rather, is there really a link between "announced projects [that] never get completed" and completed ones?

I didn't study this, but I know I'm not the only one who does not announce projects.

Then again, who knows how many of the UNannounced projects never get completed... but IMO that's not relevant, since unannounced is not really a relevant project, until revealed. Usually when an unannounced project is dropped, where relevant effort has been done, the authors will mention this, or post the incomplete work.

[DaFool]

This is really encouraging.

My personal mean-time-to-burnout is 2 months, and I get a workable new idea every month. I really admire people who are able to stretch their attention span for many months. Then again, I prefer to do every element for my projects so that contributes to overexposure to them.

[GorillaKick]

Too true, too true. I've tried time and again to finish what I start only to find myself back where I started.

As of late, I've probably tried to start about three projects, and all of them are sitting abandoned for the moment. Of course, my problem is that, while fleshing out one idea, more ideas pop into my head simultaneously. Suddenly, I come to a point where I have more ideas than will power.

[DaFool]

How about having a technique where you let an idea sit for a few weeks or months, and if it still appeals to you, only then would you implement it? And to not have a project based solely on one idea, but on multiple ideas, so that even with more ideas coming and going, there will still be enough to sustain a project as it evolves? (And a project rarely is exactly the same completed as when it was first envisioned)

Let's call this the Idea Marination Technique

Another thing which I have been doing, since I am not a high-output artist enough to do a manga, is to rarely bother with concept sketches, and if so, just the minimum number to envision something. I tend to dive immediately into production artwork, and tweak it to fit the vision and motif of the project as I'm making it. I mean, there are so many OELVN projects out there that have so much concept art and promotion art I'm scratching my head why they had to waste a lot of time which could have been used to create in-game art immediately. In-game art is always useable as promotional / website art anyway, as long as you don't exhaust them.

Let's call this the Dive Straight to In-game Art Technique

[mikey]

Idea Marination >> I think the concept is good for ideas, but I'm not sure whether it solves the motivation/work part of the equation. You're right, and I do this often - I keep my ideas and try to play around with them, merge them and so on, but even if I have a really well-prepared concept, there is still the question of filling it with actual content (mostly writing). This can be really a problem, for me anyway. So I have this idea of I don't know a girl that falls in love with a picture. It looks good, I have a few scenes in mind, but when I open the notepad, I don't know what to write. Do I start with a scene where the girl goes to the gallery? Does she write a diary? I don't know! But the idea seems so well prepared, I wouldn't want to add anything, but when it comes to the content... hmmm. I don't know what to write.

As for the other technique, I give you right, I think generally concept art is useless, unless it's really used for its true purpose... like trying out things whether they will work. But it's no secret that big games do their concept arts well AFTER the games' assets have been decided on. People will want the artbook with the concept, but do they want to see your doodles on the napkin at Burger King even though that was the decisive one? Of course not. So you give them this illusion and it makes your company look "pro" with such cool drawings. It's true.

[papillon]

While I'm in no position to put out an artbook - if I did, it would be the *second* level concept arts, not the first, that would mostly be in it. My sketches, for the most part, are hideous. Some look better than others, but a lot of them are intentionally ugly scribbles and stick figures because I was trying to communicate layout, not detail. Even on the better ones, I wouldn't really want to hold them up to scrutiny.

On the other hand I have piles of roughs submitted by the paid artists for me to check that they're going the right direction before they finish the sprite/CG, and these look good. I'd probably use those for artbook purposes, even though they're all based on OTHER concept sketches.

I'm not sure what sort of useless concept art you're talking about, though. Everything I drew was done to be able to give to the artists to explain what I needed (as well as placeholding during development). What else is there?

[mikey]

I think that DaFool's idea of jumping straight to game art (and my idea of useless concept art) would typically apply to artists who work on their own vision - no need for great concepts there, they already know. If THEY draw concept arts, it's usually not very fruitful (useless may be a harsh term, I realize).

For me, who can't draw a bit of sketches going back and forth is necessary, so indeed this concept art isn't useless - on the contrary.

Useless concept art can probably be applied to the "promotional" concept art - which is just promotional, not really serving the purpose of bringing the vision together.

[Ren]

I actually love sketches :3 Sometimes even more than full colored illustrations, I used to stare at one picture of Tina in FFVI's gallery every time i played the game.I stared at Xenogears' sketches and early concepts for ages, I love to see how some characters change from their first sketch to the game/anime/whatever.I drool on every pencil sketch i found made by Carnelian...you get my point

Also, even though i never made a webcomic/game/what-have-you and you wouldn't know, I usually don't draw a character and say"There!He/She's gonna have those clothes, that hair, that expression.Even the characters that I'm more proud of usually get some polishing because I think of something in their attire that needs to be simpler(most of the time, because I tend to draw way too complicated things) or more detailed.

That, and I used to skip the concept phase(always in my never-to-be-seen-comics-that-went-straight-to-the-fireplace comics) and sooner or later i found out that some particular house would have been easier to draw if I planned how it was meant to look instead of jumping straight to the CGed thing, same for characters' clothes and so on.But that's just me, I tend to get discouraged easily when I face my own failures T^T