Impossibility Calculations

[mikey]

I read one discussion about the eroge/galge/bgame/visualnovel/datingsims family of works, and I stopped for a moment. The discussion was quite competent, as always, sprinkled with the usual dose of hype and "this game is better than that game" kind of thing. Nothing out of the ordinary, but since the discussion mentioned several games that I never heard of, all of this got me thinking.

Can you really be a competent "expert" on the subject?

Let's imagine you are a normal person - wake up at 7, go to work at 8, come back at 5. Now, you make some dinner, relax for a bit and take care of the household (wash up, clean up, if needed). Perhaps you go for a walk or do some sports with your significant other. This takes you just about so much that you are finished by 7:30 or 8, at which time you glance over the news and watch your favorite primetime TV show on that day (most probably again together with your better half). If not, then you probably do something together anyway - or if you have children, you take care of them as well. It gets you neatly to 9:30 or 10 p.m., at which time your kids are asleep, and you and your wife may want to devote some time before going to sleep to individual activities (unless of course the situation turns out differently and you end up doing something together). But let's just assume you have about one and a half hours of pure you-time on a given day, (on average).

Now, even if I was to double that to 3 hours of you-time, and I would still mean AVERAGE - counting in the weekends, where there is usually more free time, but then that's often also a time when you go out for the day, we'd still be left with "just" 3 hours a day.

Let's imagine that the average fully commercial and full-length game has a playtime of 20 hours - and again, this is an average, taking into consideration the real War-And-Peace-like monstrosities, as well as ye olde yaruge with about 10 hours.

So, to complete an average retail game, you need an average of 1 week. I count in all the possible playthroughs, and the fact that you're not speed-reading, but really taking it easy and slow, like it should be. Now, even if I was to double that, 2 games a week - that would be (let's round it up) a potential of 100 games per year that you could play.

Remember, we're still talking about a non-student, full-time employed person, possibly with children, who has his family as priority #1 - he would have the potential to thoroughly and properly play a maximum of 100 commercial games a year. And that's really a lot, if you think about it.

But what are 100 games a year? It's really nothing, I assume there is at least 3-times the amount of games being produced every year - not all of them are blockbusters from Key or typemoon or the handful of known companies. But they are games nevertheless, so in fact is is physically impossible to play everything.

Even if you would stretch it - 24-hour day, 8 hours you sleep, leaving 16 hours of awake time - this alone is one average game, so the absolute limit of what a person can play is actually about 360 games a year (disregarding the fact that if you spend your entire day playing, you don't work and hence have no money to buy the games).

But let's say you'd be on the limit - play 360 games a year - you still probably wouldn't be able to play them ALL, I mean all releases of the given year, since there are a lot more doujin titles, and I would assume the grand total of released games is much more than 360 a year anyway. I don't even count re-editions or games that already exist, that you haven't played - if you just started today, that would mean a lot of games.

So you'd be as good an expert as you could be (provided you chose your 360 of the year well enough), but then no one would know, because you wouldn't have time to write / talk about it - since you'd have to play more and more. And forget about being in touch with what's new and hot - blogs and hype and news take a sizeable bit of time, you'd lose at least two hours a day. If you would be in discussion forums, that takes another hour or so, and so it goes on.

Oh, and the anime based on bishoujo games, if you'd watch that too, you'd be looking at yet more time. Reading other people's reviews, or subscribing to gaming magazines that you would read, another portion of your time gone. And the problem is, this would be all you could do - forget other internet fun things, forget online games or funny youtube videos, forget chat, forget playing the latest RPG, forget watching movies or anything for that matter.

This is impossible, also simply because if you were to take the most efficient route and play 16 hours a day... I suppose after a few weeks you would have a nervous breakdown, you wouldn't be able to appreciate the games individually, you would be sick from the computer's screen, and you'd probably either lose or gain weight a lot. And as a lot of the games will refer to everyday situations, how would you be able to appreciate them when all you do is sit at home and play?

It brings me back neatly to my initial calculation for a normal person - 100 games a year, and that was double the figure I put down as average - if you think about it, even 50 is an incredible lot. It's not just being able to click through, it's also about being able to appreciate the games, take the time to get into their mood. By playing too many games in a row, your senses naturally degrade, your awareness of the individuality fades and then you're just seeing it as one blur, at best identifying "oh, she is the teacher" and "she is the childhood friend", and getting their plots. I'm afraid that a lot of the individual atmosphere would simply not be able to get through to you, since you're not "treating the game right".

Then, there is the subject of memories. Would you remember all the games? A few years after playing, I honestly cannot discuss let's say Eve Burst Error in any greater detail - all I know is I liked the game and it had a nice atmosphere. The actual characters, their backgrounds and motivations, I do remember, but only vaguely. So I cannot really add anything substantial to a discussion about Eve - simply because I don't remember anymore. And it's not because I'm old, it's simply a natural thing. All you will be able to remember after some time are the most characteristic features - either the plot for some unexpected twist, or a specific feeling - the atmosphere. Alternatively, you can remember a game for a character that you fell in love with. But anything more is just not possible.

Therefore, you should ensure you can actually appreciate the important things - this means taking the time, and giving the games a chance, rather than playing them one after another - and missing a lot of the subtleties, which in fact are often the essence.

So, the question is, how many full-length games can a self-sufficient adult reasonably (and properly) play? I'd say not really a lot - I would stand by my 50 games a year, and you still need to consider all the other things you may want to do on your computer - watch anime, watch TV, be active in a community, have a blog, run a website...

This is why I think, there is no such thing as an expert whose expertise is really first-hand. It's physically and mentally impossible to play every visual novel - it's actually impossible to even come close. Most of the people will therefore play only the big hits - E17, Tsukuihime, Clannad, School Days (I don't even know whether the name is correct, maybe it's Summer Days... or maybe they are two games). And that's about it - it's the same with translated doujin works - little attention is given to deja vu's translations, instead everyone goes straight to True Remembrance. It's not a bad thing however - it's simply a consequence of the fact that the day has 24 hours and you probably want to spend it on something that is perceived as "best". In fact, it's actually also the "most common" as well - since when you want to appear knowledgeable about the subject, you have to play the big titles, since they are the standard topics in discussions.

What I've learned is that with all due respect, anyone talking about bishoujo/VNs as an expert, anyone who has good knowledge... doesn't really have it. At best, he has information about things he likes, and things he can manage to keep tabs on. To be honest, these days I even struggle to find "quality time" for something as niche as OELVNs, and as a result, I have a backlog. But I'm not going to rush it, since that would be the one wrong thing to do. It's a situation which isn't great for me, but it's still a lot better than just clicking through them to be able to make a comment.

It took me 1 hour to write this post - and thanks largely to the fact that I have unexpected free time as my boss went away and because I type, I appear to be working. Would I write this when I got home? Probably not, at least not to this detail - it's really a lot of time, an hour. Normally, it would be depressing to know that there is no way of fully grasping the world of bishoujo games, but I guess since no one can do it, you can only settle down in one of its sub-sections, one that you have the capability of appreciating fully - and I think there is just no other way than to admit that the impossibility calculations prove this.

[MorphineSoldier]

What about a games journalist, whose job is to play and study games who happens to focus on eroge? And if he also happens to play on his own time.

Just an idea. [Obviously only possible in Japan, as there's not enough eroge here to warrant a consistent publication.]

[mikey]

Games journalists usually get releases with comments and hints, as well as cheats to help them play, so they typically have more info - it's not uncommon for reviews to be written from cheated playthroughts, or with walkthroughs - furthermore journalists work in teams, and typically they have a week for one game to play and write an article - a magazine will naturally be filled with articles written by multiple journalists. And from what I know it's often a collective decision on verdict (several people play, give their comments and one of them writes the article). This is non-VN information, though, but I can't imagine it being different with other "games" such as VNs. And typically the magazines will review the big titles, too - since there is no time to play everything.

[monele]

What must an expert know/do to be considered an expert in your eyes?

(and why couldn't a student be an expert, at least for a few years? ;p)

[mikey]

What must an expert know/do to be considered an expert in your eyes?

I don't know, I just used the word for someone who is "knowledgeable", who when you tell him about something he can discuss this with you, who has decent knowledge about all the possible topics.

(and why couldn't a student be an expert, at least for a few years? ;p)

This is kind of the point - I agree that it's possible to be up-to-date with the most common topics, and sure everyone has had a period of time when they played one VN after another and oozed with information and opinions (for me it was the summer of 2003), but this is not sustainable, this was my point. Actually, my point was that even in such a small segment of anime culture as VNs are, it's impossible to experience everything it has to offer. And this is kind of the sad thing. Even if you try your best, there will still be someone who has played something that you haven't.

[Asceai]

In my personal experience, I can get through _most_ commercial visual novels in 3-4 days. I work full time. That's probably about 12-15 hours of playing time, and anyone with a competent grasp of Japanese could leave me in the dust in that regard. In fact, I find it's mainly the highly-rated VNs that are the long ones, and for the most part, VNs are shorter than you'd expect.*

The thing is that:

• If a visual novel isn't very good, it doesn't take very long to find out. =p
• If a visual novel is very well written, you can sometimes read through it very slowly, savouring every bit, just because it's a sheer joy to read. I found Himawari to be like that.
• It's very easy to CTRL through bits of a VN that you find boring.

That can drastically reduce the reading time of some VNs, while still giving you a reasonably good grasp of the content.

* obviously there are exceptions all-round. If you ever find someone that's willing to play through all of Touka Gettan (if you find that person, please refer them to me, because I have some games I want them to play for me!), you're probably looking at a hundred hours or so of playing. Ggfhdjkgfgfgfh. Some games just don't get played because of this =p

How much of an expert does one have to be, anyway? It's not like there are people out there who have read every book or watched every movie. That's physically impossible, really. If you've played a hundred or more full-length VNs you're enough of an expert in my book.

For keeping on top of VNs themselves, I think you could just get away with playing the ones with a reasonable amount of popularity. You don't have to play every single damn thing that rune, d.o and zyx pump out =p

Actually, my point was that even in such a small segment of anime culture as VNs are, it's impossible to experience everything it has to offer. And this is kind of the sad thing. Even if you try your best, there will still be someone who has played something that you haven't.

I disagree. It's not a small segment of anime culture at all, really. There's at least four thousand full-length visual novels released to date. I doubt there's even two thousand reasonably lengthed anime series' released to date, and that's got a much longer history.

(there's, like, ~10000(?) distinct well-known 'animes' in total, but once you cut out all the movies and single-ep OVAs....)

I also disagree about it being a segment of anime culture at all. I'm pretty sure that while anime, manga, visual novels and light novels are connected, it's mostly just because they come under the umbrella of visual media in Japan.

And I disagree on a personal level, too. I've spent far more time playing visual novels than watching anime, and for the most part, the only anime I do watch is - you guessed it - anime adaptations of VNs I liked. =P

[monele]

I agree that you don't need to read/play the whole of all VNs to be an expert. Does a movie expert need to know all the crappy movies by heart? :/

Also, hm... is this really about VNs? I mean, can someone be an expert on car racing games? or FPS? I suppose they might take less time to complete... What about books then? Aren't there book experts nowadays? I don't think all the experts know *all* the items included in the category they're an expert of. There's always some sort of specialization.
So, you could be an expert of dating sims... or an expert of fantasy VNs...

[Hentai Senshi]

You're assuming that expertise requires that you stay up to date on as many new releases as possible, and that you finish all the new releases you play. While reviewing a game well may require finishing a large fraction of it, most people only exhaustively complete their favourite games.

I don't expect normal people to be experts - being within the norm and exceeding the norm conflict. The person best positioned to be a bona fide expert on VNs (from the player side) _IS_ going to be the stereotypical basement-dwelling otaku who spends most of his time doing it and DOESN'T work a fulltime job (unless it's as a VN reviewer or something where they can spend much of their time playing while they wait for something to happen.).

Now, one could wedge more VN-playing time in without having it obliterate other aspects of one's life by various expedients like taking the train to work and playing VNs on the train, or by playing them with one's lovers - sharig a game is more interactive time than sharing a TV show is, after all.

[mikey]

I disagree. It's not a small segment of anime culture at all, really. There's at least four thousand full-length visual novels released to date. I doubt there's even two thousand reasonably lengthed anime series' released to date, and that's got a much longer history.

That makes it even worse, then ^_^. Hmmm, the only info I have on this is that back in the old days (2003?) I read in a some articles that 200 - 300 bishoujo games get produced every year.

I also disagree about it being a segment of anime culture at all. I'm pretty sure that while anime, manga, visual novels and light novels are connected, it's mostly just because they come under the umbrella of visual media in Japan.

Agreed. Technically it is actually something self-contained, even thought anime-style prevails and that's why it's often associated with it.

And I disagree on a personal level, too. I've spent far more time playing visual novels than watching anime, and for the most part, the only anime I do watch is - you guessed it - anime adaptations of VNs I liked.

Hmmm, I don't know what there is to disagree with, to be honest. I would say I also spent more time playing VNs than watching anime, I mean I started with anime, but VNs (bishoujo games, whatever) got me hooked and dragged me away very quickly. So when time was sparse, the first thing I stopped doing was watch the latest anime.

It's not like there are people out there who have read every book or watched every movie. That's physically impossible, really.

Well... to be honest... this was my point, that it can't be done (with VNs). You could probably sum up my first post in those two sentences. I know it's stating the obvious, I'm sure even I *knew* that it's impossible, but this was to make me *realize* it (once more).

Also, hm... is this really about VNs? I mean, can someone be an expert on car racing games? or FPS? I suppose they might take less time to complete... What about books then? Aren't there book experts nowadays? I don't think all the experts know *all* the items included in the category they're an expert of. There's always some sort of specialization.So, you could be an expert of dating sims... or an expert of fantasy VNs...

Well, this was what I was trying to point out, the whole VN/DS world is too big to grasp - so you can either be selective (read: play the big hits with the occasional alternative), or find a subset (like fantasy VNs) and make yourself at home in there.

[chronoluminaire]

I don't find this either surprising or worrying. Growing up in the digital age as I have, I've always known there's far more to do in the world than I'll have time to do. This continues to apply even in seemingly-small genres. I don't view it as a problem; it's kindof encouraging that even if I live for hundreds of years, there'll be more than enough books to read, or anime to watch, or VNs to play, or countries to visit, or board games to try...

And as has been said, nobody said being an "expert" had to mean you'd played everything. That's a completely unrealistic expectation. To know most of what the possible options are, and to have played some significant fraction - that's plenty enough qualification to be an "expert", in my mind.

[PyTom]

Maybe it's my background in science rather than humanities, but I don't think it's necessary to play every visual novel to become an expert in visual novels. Rather, I think that expertise comes from being able to synthesize what you have learned from the corpus of visual novels you have played, and be able to apply those analyses to new visual novels, and concepts for visual novels in general.

For our purposes, I'd think expertise largely consists of knowing what works and what doesn't, as well as the evolution of what works.

(One project I've been considering forever but never had the time to start is "Understanding Visual Novels", similar to Scott McCloud's "Understanding Comics".)

[Jake]

Maybe it's my background in science rather than humanities, but I don't think it's necessary to play every visual novel to become an expert in visual novels. Rather, I think that expertise comes from being able to synthesize what you have learned from the corpus of visual novels you have played, and be able to apply those analyses to new visual novels, and concepts for visual novels in general.

To be honest, what English I've done (I did a CS degree, but carried on with such fluffy humanities subjects through A-Levels) takes more or less this approach anyway; the last Lit exam I took involved reading some prose I'd never seen before and analysing it using the same techniques and general knowledge I'd accumulated from studying other texts previously in the classroom. "This story is probably aimed at children, because it doesn't have any long words or require any knowledge that someone over the age of ten wouldn't have, and has a very straightforward plot which at no point deceives the reader"; "this story is unsatifying because it is otherwise a classic morality-fairytale structure, but the moral that it teaches is not directly illustratred by the protagonist but rather occurs independent of his actions".

(Of course, the difference remains that a scientific approach favours succinct conclusions like the ones above, while each of those statements should really have been ten pages long and padded with name-dropping references and random spurious theses if they were English Lit exam answers. )

[rioka]

(One project I've been considering forever but never had the time to start is "Understanding Visual Novels", similar to Scott McCloud's "Understanding Comics".)

Wow, that's an ambitious plan. I'd be the first to line up and check it out if you ever finish it.

:throws fuel into fire:

When does one become an expert anyways? I've been drawing for years but I still feel that there's always room for improvement. How many VN games to do you have to play before you're a VN gaming expert? Does your position make you can expert (a la gaming journalists) or being able to quote directly from games which mega-fans will be able to do? Or is it because you know more than the other people and become an "authority" in that field (until someone else comes along who knows more than you)?

[mikey]

*reads PyTom's and Jake's posts*

To put it simply from my perspective - there has been an increasing number of discussions in which I can't really participate (neither by sharing impressions, nor by opinion/analysis) - because just I haven't played the said games. So I calculated the whole thing to prove to myself that it's not my fault - to feel better.

As for experts... I think the "expert" simply must generalize, his opinions on the latest harem games not being really about the said game, but also taking into account the ones previously played. In fact, a seasoned player could probably write a review for "Yet Another Yaruge" that would be pretty accurate, without really playing it at all. But doesn't even something as "low" as yaruge deserve a full view, separated from the legacy of its predecessors? Someone who plays XChange for the first time will find it a rather good game. Someone who has seen it all before, won't. So the expertise has this drawback - and I'm not saying it's bad... I'm just saying. ^_^

[Threevenge]

When does one become an expert anyways?

This is something I don't think anybody can really know. Definitions of the word say "knowledgeable" or "specialist", but those terms don't really say anything.

Here's an even bigger question: Who would really want to be an expert?

I find one of the best things in any hobby is knowing there's more out there you don't know. One of my hobbies is freeware games, and nothing beats finding great freeware games like White Chamber (http://www.studiotrophis.com/site/proje ... itechamber) that I never knew even existed. Being an expert in something like this would actually cause me to lose interest. Exploring what's out there in my hobbies is half the fun and what keeps me interested. I dare to say that "Ignorance is bliss," is true for me when it comes my interests.