Decline of Bishoujo Game Industry

[DaFool]

Cyzo's Business Journal website interviewed minori producer Nobukazu Sakai ("nbkz") about the current state of the bishōjo game industry in an article published on Sunday. Sakai noted that it takes about 30 million yen (about US$300,000) to make a title of a certain level of quality. However, the budgets of minori's own Supipara and ef titles exceeded 100 million yen (US$1 million). He explained this is mainly due to CG costs, particularly due to users' higher screen resolutions and PC specs. His company releases only one game per year.

Sakai said that in the last decade, a super hit sold 100,000 copies, a big hit sold 30,000, and a regular hit sold 20,000. However, a game would be a hit now with only 10,000 copies — with Japan having a population of 100 million over the age of 18, that means only 0.01% are buying these games. To explain the declining sales, Sakai said that this is the age where entertainment has diversified with YouTube, Niconico, social games, and multiple game systems such as the PlayStation 3, PSP, and Nintendo 3DS.

As a result, Sakai estimated that staff members in the industry earn 3 million yen (US$30,000) on average. Even minori was seriously considering dissolution after its Supipara game sold only half as expected. The company was able to recover with its next game, Natsuzora no Perseus (pictured above).

This is the full translation:
https://akirascuro.wordpress.com/2013/0 ... -industry/

Key points:

It costs $300,000-$1,000,000 to make a VN or minori quality.
Blockbusters no longer sell 100,000. They sell only 10,000.
Main culprit of decline of market is increasing availability of diverse media options.
In Japan, the Light Novel industry is taking the lions share of the best writers and artists away from visual novels.

My personal observations:

I'm surprised this article is just given moderate attention even on 4chan. Several years ago this article would have been OMG THE SKY IS FALLING THE INDUSTRY IS DOOMED. I guess most of the bishoujo playing old fogies have moved on with their lives.

Suffice to say, such an article wouldn't really matter much anymore even on this forum. The typical content on these forums do not resemble bishoujo games but more like mainstream otome games you get from GREE.

Also I have to confess that these games don't do it for me anymore. I'd rather have quirky games from mid-tier JP developers on Nintendo to weird indie experiments on PC. For story-based content a lot of RPGs fill that niche without making it tedious (provided they have engaging battles).

It's part of the reason why I've been hesitant to invest in more traditional VN style presentation/gameplay without exploring all possible options, particularly from titles that have successfully proved the market.

I'm afraid to say things like Walking Dead or Heavy Rain would be more apt for western developers, moving forward.

[SundownKid]

"That’s why I think we should stop listening to public opinion at large and only listen to those who actually want to buy our games."

That's kind of like what happened to anime, but it's probably the wrong position to take. These types of games are dying because their audience is moving to more interesting, non-cliched fare. So, to go where the money is would be to make a game like Walking Dead with a more interesting premise and gameplay. Versus a niche audience that's slowly decreasing.

"Stand-alone single-player games are becoming less and less popular."

Hahaha, what? Tell that to the games that sold millions upon millions on Steam like Skyrim or Walking Dead. Single player games are just as popular as they've always been, if not more so. I think the problem is the isolationist attitude where it has to sell only in Japan, that has denied us so many good RPGs in the past.

[Taleweaver]

This might be a good time to mention that the games coming from the Lemmasoft forums, practically since it was born, have to a large extent not been traditional bishoujo games.

As DaFool already pointed out, much of what's currently in production here (and much of what has been released in the last two years) can be categorized as otome. Before that, we've had a large rollout of mystery games. Before that, we had sad, existentialist dramas. And even before that, we had mikey's psychologial studies. Heck, even most of my games don't really fall into the bishoujo category.

I think there'll always be money in good writing, and that VNs are a great way to present writing. We have all the necessary skills right here on this forum. I wouldn't be overly alarmed.

[jack_norton]

"Stand-alone single-player games are becoming less and less popular."

Hahaha, what? Tell that to the games that sold millions upon millions on Steam like Skyrim or Walking Dead. Single player games are just as popular as they've always been, if not more so. I think the problem is the isolationist attitude where it has to sell only in Japan, that has denied us so many good RPGs in the past.

Yeah when I read that I was in WTF mode too there's a boom of free to play games, in particular on mobile, but all the devs I know who make single player games aren't exactly starving either... of course if making a game costs you $1M is harder to recover the cost vs a small indie game that might cost $10,000.

[latte]

I was reading that article just yesterday, my two cents:

-nbkz has some common sense to understand that piracy is't the end of the world, and that people who don't pay will just move to free entertainment if they can't get their hands in pirated versions, but not so much common sense to spend a million making a game that doesn't appeal to their fanbase. Three other all-ages titles that came out in 2012 brought profit to their traditionally adult-geared companies;

-LNs are snatching a great share of the market because they're far, far cheaper and are becoming increasingly more ero, and have a broader selection of themes. JVNs lately are all. the. same;

-last but not least, commercial bishoujo games have been decreasing in quality and variety for the last five years or so. There are still some decent nakige, but that's it. Action, mystery and other genres that were present in some classics are practically gone from the shelves, so much that whenever they appear in a game, people flock at it (Midori no Umi, Gun Knight Girl).

So yes, the industry has declined, but there are still games that sell. minori recovered with NatsuPeru because they went all ero in that one. Key sells when people cry. Propeller is good with supernatural and magical realism, Liar Soft with high fantasy and steampunk. Know your strenghts and your public. Also Supipara was doomed to failure from the start, seeing how its premise and characters are terribly bland, it has nothing like ef's or eden's dramatic punches and only has two heroines. How did they expect to sell a full-priced all-ages game like that?

[thekobester11]

I think what the industry needed is a new tactic/tickle to the consumers. Let's accept it, there's nothing new about visual novels anymore. They've been the same since the 90's. True, some companies upgraded their sprites into 3d models but other than that, it's still the same.

Also, it's the LN Boom now. Even anime and mangas are having a hard time...

[latte]

Oh, I'd just like to add something: Propeller, a established company that released a successful PG title last year, is taking a shot at an all-ages fantasy/action game with a female protagonist. It doesn't seem to be yuri, if that's confirmed then they're trying to make a friendship-based VN. I don't know how this could possibly sell, but if it does, it may mark a new beginning in VN history.

If anyone's curious: http://www.propeller-game.com/product/a ... index.html

[LateWhiteRabbit]

Sakai noted that it takes about 30 million yen (about US$300,000) to make a title of a certain level of quality. However, the budgets of minori's own Supipara and ef titles exceeded 100 million yen (US$1 million). He explained this is mainly due to CG costs, particularly due to users' higher screen resolutions and PC specs.

I agree with the interviewer. To paraphrase - "Where the hell does that money go?"

This, to me, is symptomatic of the same budget bloat that has infected the Western AAA studios the past decade, which is still ridiculous, but here, in Sakai's case, it is just insane. The simple fact is you are still making a 2D game where much of the art is used over and over again. And the CG costs are higher because of higher screen resolutions?! Bullshit.

To put it simply, we have to color in 4.3 times the space.

That's patently ridiculous. Yes, yes you DO have to color in 4.3 times as many pixels. But that isn't really much more time consuming - the planning, sketching, and inking is what takes the most time, and it is no harder or longer to do those things at 1920x1080 than it is for 800x600. Let me break it down another way - if you paid each CG artist $60 an hour, and gave them 16 hours per CG, you'd end up paying $1,000 per CG. Which is, yes, a lot. But even ONE HUNDRED CGs at that cost only come to $100,000, or 10 million yen. And can you honestly tell me they are paying those poor assistant artists anywhere near that? Likely the main artist is sketching the characters in the CG, the assistants are drawing the backgrounds and inking, and the main artist is coming back in to color everything. Or some combination there-in.

Furthermore, all those sprites for the manual, disk, posters and advertisement had to have been draw well above 1920x1080 ANYWAY. Have Japanese VN artists actually only been drawing at 800x600 all this time instead of drawing larger and scaling down, like every other digital artist ever? Traditionally they've been using pencil and paper anyway, which can be scanned in at absurd resolutions.

I mean, this isn't rocket science. If you know you are not likely to sell more than 10,000 copies of any given title at $95, you know you can't spend more than 100 million yen ($1 million US). And if you want to be profitable and maintain operating costs, you better spend less than that.

The bishoujo games haven't changed significantly from a technical standpoint for 17 years. Now they are often shorter, and have fewer graphics and gameplay elements than similar titles in the 90s.
One of the first titles I played in the mid-90s in the genre had dozens of sprites and CGs, engaging gameplay, and numerous choices and branches. One of the latest titles I played as a Japanese import from a big company had only 4 choices, 5 sprites, and 20 or so CGs. It's one of the only game genre's that has gone BACKWARDS as time has progressed. Who would have thought the quality would DECREASE as the decades went on. When indies can give me more innovation in the game genre and often rival or surpass the quality of these 100 million yen titles, it makes me wonder what the heck the Japanese developers are doing with that money.

Cheap or free middleware and tech advances should have been driving down the costs for these studios. With digital distribution, reuse of game engines, and easier access and communication with your fanbase than ever before, bishoujo titles should be more profitable than ever, at least enough to compensate for declining sales, which honestly is probably partially a result of studios having to be dragged kicking and screaming into updating anything in the game genre. I mean, whining you have to work at modern monitor resolutions instead of 15 year old PC specs? That's just sad.

The failure to innovate is why other media and games are now kicking the bishoujo game genre's butt.

[PyTom]

But even ONE HUNDRED CGs at that cost only come to $100,000, or 10 million yen.

I took a look online, and it seems like Natsuzora no Perseus seems to have 2168 event CGs. On one hand, that overestimates things a bit - most CGs are minor variations on each other. But I'd call it 200 or so CGs, each with 10 variations. That's exclusive of sprites and backgrounds - this is just the event cgs. (It looks like some of the CGs are in Quad-HD resolution, as well, given how there are zoomed-in variants.)

I really wonder if the scale of some of these games is the problem - if they'd make more profit off a $20 game that cost less to produce, and more people could buy.

[LateWhiteRabbit]

But even ONE HUNDRED CGs at that cost only come to $100,000, or 10 million yen.

I took a look online, and it seems like Natsuzora no Perseus seems to have 2168 event CGs. On one hand, that overestimates things a bit - most CGs are minor variations on each other. But I'd call it 200 or so CGs, each with 10 variations. That's exclusive of sprites and backgrounds - this is just the event cgs. (It looks like some of the CGs are in Quad-HD resolution, as well, given how there are zoomed-in variants.)

I really wonder if the scale of some of these games is the problem - if they'd make more profit off a $20 game that cost less to produce, and more people could buy.

But it just looks like poor planning to me - the resolution of the art work makes very little difference in how its produced. A little more time, yes, but not a great deal more. And if you are properly preparing for CG variations, that means you only need to do the CG background, and add character variations on top. Instead of approaching CGs as unique illustrations, they should be constructed using animation cell techniques. Once the setup is complete, you are essentially just having to draw an extra sprite for each variation - still a lot of work, but not $1000 worth of work.

Scale is no doubt a factor in these games and 2168 Event CG combinations is undoubtedly overkill. Are all those variations important or necessary? Again, planning and game systems are going to be key here. Too many traditional Japanese developers seem to approach things from a "start to finish, straight through" perspective when it comes to VNs and bishoujo games. It seems they approach them like a manga or anime, just going through the script and creating assets in a "straight-ahead" fashion, especially in regards to CGs. The key is to optimize your game elements so they can come together in new, emergent ways that free you to do more with less. A vigorous pre-production period would do wonders for their budget - its why the games industry uses Gantt charts. It makes it easy to see where your time and money is going to go, and allows you to restructure or change plans to make corrections.

The Japanese developers obviously have the numbers, but it seems they consistently ignore them in favor of a pipe dream. Especially as an established company with prior releases, they KNOW what each title is likely to sell. Instead, they say, we USED to sell 100,000 copies 12 years ago, so lets just assume that'll happen again, even though it hasn't in forever. But if they pre-plan and say - "Wow, we have over 2000 CGs and it's going to cost us millions, but we may only sell 10,000 copies of this game" they can go back and make changes to the story structure, condense elements, find where assets can be reused, etc. In fact, the smartest way would be to take a look at your art budget, decide you only have money for 150 CGs if you want to stay profitable, and then go back through a finished script and decide where having CGs would have the most impact, or be the most important.

The whole thing just smacks of the mismanagment I see in failed American game companies. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity, but the bishoujo game makers just keep doing the same thing over and over again and crying out against the injustice of it not working like it used to.

[DaFool]

Bamboo of OVERDRIVE (You know, Go Go Nippon) is now pondering calling it quits

http://kahouha2jigen.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-1400.html

Someone will translate his post, hopefully.

[Blane Doyle]

^if I am not mistaken I have seen some people saying they mean they are bowing out of making games but the company itself will still be around. Maybe they're focusing on other things?

[nyaatrap]

Bamboo of OVERDRIVE (You know, Go Go Nippon) is now pondering calling it quits

http://kahouha2jigen.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-1400.html

Someone will translate his post, hopefully.

I don't have time to translate, though in summery, he's just thinking to make new "markets” to keep selling what he want to make. Unlike minori (I honestly think this company is one of the worst example in the current market, who is just thinking how to expand the current market only), He looks more positive and active.

BTW, some people turned their backs on the main stream market then went to the doujin, making the same professional quality game but far small amount of writings and arts. It looks successful than before.

[EroBotan]

Oh, I'd just like to add something: Propeller, a established company that released a successful PG title last year, is taking a shot at an all-ages fantasy/action game with a female protagonist. It doesn't seem to be yuri, if that's confirmed then they're trying to make a friendship-based VN. I don't know how this could possibly sell, but if it does, it may mark a new beginning in VN history.

If anyone's curious: http://www.propeller-game.com/product/a ... index.html

I'm really liking what I see so far! The music is also amazing, currently replaying it over and over XD! Thanks a lot for the link !! .. and I hope it will be yuri and get translated ^^

[PyTom]

BTW, some people turned their backs on the main stream market then went to the doujin, making the same professional quality game but far small amount of writings and arts. It looks successful than before.

Two questions:

1) How much does a "professional doujin" like this go for, as compared to a packaged game?

2) Do people collect sales tax on their doujin sales? Do they report it as taxable income?